SWAT Chasers at the Dayton Hamvention today and tomorrow. Stop by, say hi and check out the SWERV.
Irene strengthened into a hurricane overnight despite her interaction with land. Nearly all of Puerto Rico is without power as Irene battered the island with 80 mph wind gusts.
Here is a radar loop of Irene as she passed over Puerto Rico early this morning:
Our forecast guidance continues to track Irene just North of the Island of Hispanolia. If this were to occur, land interaction would be very minimal and Irene would likely continue to strengthen. With an extremely favorable upper air environment, Irene should have no problem reaching major hurricane status within the next 48-72 hours.
The track of Irene is the big question. With a weakeness in the subtropical ridge, Irene will likely take a turn towards the North or Northwest. The only caveat in this theory is the strength of the cyclone as stronger hurricanes will often exhibit or try to exhibit a leftward motion.
While some uncertainty still exists, most of our forecast models agree that a Carolina Coastline landfall is in the works.
Irene will likely have major impacts on nearly all of the Eastern Seaboard. The cyclone will likely be large in nature with tropical storm force and hurricane winds extending well out from the Central. Tropical Storm and Hurricane force winds are likely to impact much of the Eastern Seaboard with the Western part of Irene likely coming close to the Eastern Florida Coast.
Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for much of Hispanolia, Cuba and the Bahamas.
In addition to strong winds, storm surge and extremely heavy flooding rains will be a significant threat across much of the Southeast and Eastern United States Coast. With a slow moving cyclone and a deep moisture connection/influx into the hurricane, flooding rains will be an extremely dangerous threat up and down the Southeastern and Eastern Coast. Our forecast models are already keying in on this threat with the GFS indicating widespread flooding rains from Florida to Maine.
Residents from Florida to Maine should be on high alert and be monitoring the progress of Irene. Hurricane Irene will be a large hurricane with her effects being felt well away from the center of circulation/eye wall. Irene will be a multi-facet hurricane bringing not only damaging winds, but torrential flooding rains, storm surge, strong rip currents and tornadoes.
For SWAT’s latest information on Hurricane Irene, you can follow us at:
A Hurricane Hunter Aircraft found a closed low level circulation in the tropical wave that is now Tropical Storm Emily. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings have been issued for the Leeward and Windward Islands and Puerto Rico. Emily currently has winds of 40 mph and is moving West at 17 mph. Emily should continue to gradually strengthen and turn to the Northwest. The ultimate track of Emily continues to be in question due to land interaction with Hispaniola, however all residents along the Eastern Seaboard should closely monitor the progress of Emily over the next several days.
SWAT will be closely monitoring the progression of Emily as there is a chance we may hurricane chase if she comes close to the United States Coast!
Don’t forget to check out SWATTours.com for the latest on our 2012 Storm Chase Tours!
As of this afternoon (Wednesday, July 27th, 2011), Tropical Storm Don has formed across the Western Caribbean with winds of 40 mph. Don continues to look very impressive based off of satellite images and honestly I would not be surprised if winds are currently stronger than 40 mph. The intensity guidance off of most of our forecast models keeps Don a tropical storm/weak hurricane until landfall and with wind some shear present, conditions are not overly favorable for intensification. That being said, with the impressive organization Don has already shown and with warm Sea Surface Temperatures present, Don could strengthen more than currently forecast.
The majority of our forecast models/guidance take Don to the Northwest, making landfall somewhere along the Texas coast.
Don’t forget that you can book your 2012 storm chase tour with SWAT! For the latest information/schedule/pricing, please visit http://www.SWATTours.com