Severe Weather & Tornado Outbreak Likely Tomorrow

March 1, 2012

Good morning everyone! Enjoy the calm before the storm as we are expecting a major severe weather and tornado outbreak tomorrow from portions of the Ohio Valley all the way to the Gulf Coast. 

Let’s take a look at the set-up and why a widespread severe weather outbreak is likely:

A strong low pressure system will develop over the Southern Plains and move into portions of Northern Illinois by late Friday Evening. A strong southerly flow will help advect very warm and moist air into the Ohio and Tennesssee Valleys ahead of the low pressure system.

As the low pressure strengthens, a strong jet stream will interact with the system and create what we call directional wind shear. This wind shear is what helps storms form, sustain themselves and eventually begin rotating. Here’s a look at the wind shear tomorrow evening. The red and purple values are VERY high.

A strong southerly flow will usher in very warm and moist air into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will climb into the 60’s as far North as North Central Indiana and Ohio. Here’s a look at what one of our forecast models is showing temperature wise tomorrow evening at 8:00 PM. 

Storms should begin to fire across portions of Illinois down into Eastern Missouri and Arkansas by the mid afternoon hours. These storms will quickly move into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and portions of Northern Mississippi and Northern Alabama. All of the ingredients are in place for a very violent day of severe weather with the potential for very strong and long lived tornadoes.

Here’s a look at what one of our forecast models is forecasting radar reflectivity for tomorrow afternoon:

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare Day 2 Moderate Risk from Indiana and Ohio down to portions of Northern Mississippi and Northern Alabama. Here is a look at the Storm Prediction Center’s Outlook for tomorrow:

The storm prediction center is forecasting a severe weather event in the moderate risk area with widespread damaging winds and potential for strong and violent tornadoes.

Here’s our outlook for tomorrow which is very similar. The areas we outline as numerous and outbreak likely should be prepared for a very rocky day of weather.

We encourage everyone to have their severe weather plans ready and to purchase a NOAA weather radio! Stay tuned to SWAT & IndianaWeatherOnline for the latest information.


Severe Weather & Tornado Outbreak Likely Tomorrow

March 1, 2012

Good morning everyone! Enjoy the calm before the storm as we are expecting a major severe weather and tornado outbreak tomorrow from portions of the Ohio Valley all the way to the Gulf Coast. 

Let’s take a look at the set-up and why a widespread severe weather outbreak is likely:

A strong low pressure system will develop over the Southern Plains and move into portions of Northern Illinois by late Friday Evening. A strong southerly flow will help advect very warm and moist air into the Ohio and Tennesssee Valleys ahead of the low pressure system.

As the low pressure strengthens, a strong jet stream will interact with the system and create what we call directional wind shear. This wind shear is what helps storms form, sustain themselves and eventually begin rotating. Here’s a look at the wind shear tomorrow evening. The red and purple values are VERY high.

A strong southerly flow will usher in very warm and moist air into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will climb into the 60’s as far North as North Central Indiana and Ohio. Here’s a look at what one of our forecast models is showing temperature wise tomorrow evening at 8:00 PM. 

Storms should begin to fire across portions of Illinois down into Eastern Missouri and Arkansas by the mid afternoon hours. These storms will quickly move into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and portions of Northern Mississippi and Northern Alabama. All of the ingredients are in place for a very violent day of severe weather with the potential for very strong and long lived tornadoes.

Here’s a look at what one of our forecast models is forecasting radar reflectivity for tomorrow afternoon:

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare Day 2 Moderate Risk from Indiana and Ohio down to portions of Northern Mississippi and Northern Alabama. Here is a look at the Storm Prediction Center’s Outlook for tomorrow:

The storm prediction center is forecasting a severe weather event in the moderate risk area with widespread damaging winds and potential for strong and violent tornadoes.

Here’s our outlook for tomorrow which is very similar. The areas we outline as numerous and outbreak likely should be prepared for a very rocky day of weather.

We encourage everyone to have their severe weather plans ready and to purchase a NOAA weather radio! Stay tuned to SWAT & IndianaWeatherOnline for the latest information.


Severe Weather Update for Wednesday, 5-25-11

May 25, 2011

Hey everybody, Brad Maushart here. I’m writing this to update everyone on impending weather situation across most of the Midwest, including Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. This could be a very dangerous situation, similar to what has taken place this afternoon in the plains. I will remind you now to keep a weather radio handy at all times, especially one that is battery powered, so if the power goes out in a storm, the radio will still be operational. With that said, lets get to the briefing.

Tomorrow, severe weather initiation will take place sometime between 2 and 4pm in Indiana, a few hours earlier perhaps in Illinois, and later into the evening in Ohio. The same low pressure system that triggered the severe weather outbreak across the central plains will slide off to the east, into the Ohio Valley by mid afternoon. This will bring with it the counterclockwise flow of winds, and since we will be on the eastern side of the low, we will have a rich flow of moisture along with a predominantly southerly flow of winds that will help to raise temperatures and in turn help the storms to become even more intense as a warm front will then surge northward across Indiana in the afternoon hours.

According to the SREF “significant tornado ingredients” model, one of the tools that we use to forecast severe weather, it places an area of 40 over southern Illinois and west central Indiana by 21z, or 5pm. This number is very high, and could mean that the right factors are coming together at the same time to encourage not only severe weather but also the threat of tornadoes. Below is an image of the model.

SREF Model

Note the area of "40" draped over IL and IN. 21z = 5pm edt.

Again, all the models have come into an agreement with one another that a significant severe weather outbreak will be taking place tomorrow afternoon across the Midwest. Take precautions now so you are ready when or if the dangerous weather situations present themselves. Again, this is not to panic you, rather to inform. Just be alert and make good decisions.

If a tornado WATCH is issued, storms have the right ingredients to form a tornado. If a WARNING is issued, or if the sirens sound in your town, take shelter immediately. A WARNING means that Doppler radar has indicated a strong area of rotation within a storm or that a spotter or chaser has visually confirmed a tornado. Get to a basement or storm shelter. If one is not available, the next best options would be a crawl space, a neighbors home, or the most interior room in your home. Never stay in a mobile home or trailer, get outdoors in a low lying spot and lie flat or move to a neighbors house or shelter. For more weather safety tips, please visit the National Weather Service’s website, http://www.nws.noaa.gov.

Again, tomorrow looks to be a big severe weather day across the state of Indiana, as well as Illinois and Ohio. Please keep the weather radio on, your television tuned into the local news and your attention on our website and social media pages (Facebook and Twitter) for all the latest updates on the situation as it unfolds.

-Brad Maushart