As of 8:00 AM, Hurricane Irene was a strong Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Hurricane Irene is likely undergoing what we call an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) where the old eyewall dissipates while a new eyewall develops and becomes the dominate center of circulation. This is likely the cause for Irene’s weakening, however strengthening will likely resume later today and Irene will likely regain major hurricane status (category 3).
Outer rain bands from Hurricane Irene are already impacting portions of the Eastern and Southeastern South Carolina Coast. Folly Beach, SC has already reported 2,600 people without power and I’m sure that is just the beginning in terms of power outages! Increased wave heights can also be expected this afternoon along the Florida, Georgia and Carolina Coast as Irene continues to move North at 14 mph.
As Irene draws closer to the North Carolina coast, the atmosphere associated with Irene will become more favorable for tornadoes, which is fairly common in hurricane and tropical type storms. For that reason, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined Eastern North Carolina in a slight risk (5%) for tornadoes this afternoon and this evening.
Hurricane warnings are in effect for much of the South Carolina and North Carolina Coast. Hurricane Irene is a very large hurricane with a very large wind field and strong tropical storm force and hurricane winds will reach the coast long before Irene makes landfall. Rapidly deteriorating conditions are expected along the Carolina Coast by late this evening.
My forecast track for Irene is very similar to the National Hurricane Center’s official forecast track. Irene will likely make landfall between Morehead City, NC and Hatteras, NC sometime Saturday Afternoon. Irene will then move back into open waters and make a second landfall on Sunday near Atlantic City, NJ. Here is the official National Hurricane Center forecast track and the latest hurricane watches & warnings.
Besides the hurricane force winds and potential tornadoes, the other extremely dangerous threat with Irene will be the potential for massive amounts of rainfall and dangerous and deadly flooding due to the large amounts of rainfall and storm surge. Irene has a significant moisture influx feed with her and she will bring heavy amounts of rain to the entire East Coast. 8-16 inches of rain will be possible from North Carolina all the way to New York.
Our thoughts are with all of those that will be impacted by Hurricane Irene. Hurricane Irene has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes and for that matter disasters to impact the United States in decades. Residents in the path of Irene from North Carolina to Long Island, New York should be taking their hurricane precautions/preparations and heeding any warnings given by public safety/emergency management officials.
SWATChasers is just now entering Western North Carolina and we are enroute to Morehead City, NC to get set-up and prepared for Hurricane Irene. We will continue to bring you live updates on our facebook page (www.Facebook.com/SWATChasers), on twitter (www.Twitter.com/SWATChasers) and you can watch our live streaming video later today at http://www.SWATChasers.com!
SWAT will also have live video coverage/interviews on the following stations:
WLIO – Lima, Ohio
Local 12 – Cincinnati, Ohio
ABC 22 – Dayton, Ohio
NBC WDTN 2 – Dayton, Ohio
Fox 45 – Dayton, Ohio
WCIA 3 – Eastern, Illinois (Champaign – Urbana)
Fox 59 – The Indianapolis News Leader