As of 8:00 PM this evening, Tropical Storm Bret had formed off the East coast of Florida with winds of 40 mph. Bret is moving generally meandering off the coast of Florida at about 2 mph. Steering currents are very weak and there is still some uncertainty as to which direction Bret will ultimately turn. Most of our forecast guidance generally tracks Bret to the Northeast away from the United States Coast, however with weak steering currents, there is a possibility that Bret could still have a few tricks up his sleeve.
Personally, I think a weak mid level cyclone to the North of Bret will help steer Bret away from the coast and out to sea in about 36-48 hours. With warm sea surface temperatures and weak shear, Bret will likely strengthen into a strong tropical storm by late Monday and possibly a weak hurricane by Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Bahamas and interest along the East Coast of Florida and in the Bahamas should monitor the forecast and track of Bret very closely.
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