Hamvention 2012

May 19, 2012

SWAT Chasers at the Dayton Hamvention today and tomorrow. Stop by, say hi and check out the SWERV.


Severe Weather & Tornado Outbreak Likely Tomorrow

March 1, 2012

Good morning everyone! Enjoy the calm before the storm as we are expecting a major severe weather and tornado outbreak tomorrow from portions of the Ohio Valley all the way to the Gulf Coast. 

Let’s take a look at the set-up and why a widespread severe weather outbreak is likely:

A strong low pressure system will develop over the Southern Plains and move into portions of Northern Illinois by late Friday Evening. A strong southerly flow will help advect very warm and moist air into the Ohio and Tennesssee Valleys ahead of the low pressure system.

As the low pressure strengthens, a strong jet stream will interact with the system and create what we call directional wind shear. This wind shear is what helps storms form, sustain themselves and eventually begin rotating. Here’s a look at the wind shear tomorrow evening. The red and purple values are VERY high.

A strong southerly flow will usher in very warm and moist air into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will climb into the 60’s as far North as North Central Indiana and Ohio. Here’s a look at what one of our forecast models is showing temperature wise tomorrow evening at 8:00 PM. 

Storms should begin to fire across portions of Illinois down into Eastern Missouri and Arkansas by the mid afternoon hours. These storms will quickly move into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and portions of Northern Mississippi and Northern Alabama. All of the ingredients are in place for a very violent day of severe weather with the potential for very strong and long lived tornadoes.

Here’s a look at what one of our forecast models is forecasting radar reflectivity for tomorrow afternoon:

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare Day 2 Moderate Risk from Indiana and Ohio down to portions of Northern Mississippi and Northern Alabama. Here is a look at the Storm Prediction Center’s Outlook for tomorrow:

The storm prediction center is forecasting a severe weather event in the moderate risk area with widespread damaging winds and potential for strong and violent tornadoes.

Here’s our outlook for tomorrow which is very similar. The areas we outline as numerous and outbreak likely should be prepared for a very rocky day of weather.

We encourage everyone to have their severe weather plans ready and to purchase a NOAA weather radio! Stay tuned to SWAT & IndianaWeatherOnline for the latest information.


Severe Weather & Tornado Outbreak Likely Tomorrow

March 1, 2012

Good morning everyone! Enjoy the calm before the storm as we are expecting a major severe weather and tornado outbreak tomorrow from portions of the Ohio Valley all the way to the Gulf Coast. 

Let’s take a look at the set-up and why a widespread severe weather outbreak is likely:

A strong low pressure system will develop over the Southern Plains and move into portions of Northern Illinois by late Friday Evening. A strong southerly flow will help advect very warm and moist air into the Ohio and Tennesssee Valleys ahead of the low pressure system.

As the low pressure strengthens, a strong jet stream will interact with the system and create what we call directional wind shear. This wind shear is what helps storms form, sustain themselves and eventually begin rotating. Here’s a look at the wind shear tomorrow evening. The red and purple values are VERY high.

A strong southerly flow will usher in very warm and moist air into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will climb into the 60’s as far North as North Central Indiana and Ohio. Here’s a look at what one of our forecast models is showing temperature wise tomorrow evening at 8:00 PM. 

Storms should begin to fire across portions of Illinois down into Eastern Missouri and Arkansas by the mid afternoon hours. These storms will quickly move into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and portions of Northern Mississippi and Northern Alabama. All of the ingredients are in place for a very violent day of severe weather with the potential for very strong and long lived tornadoes.

Here’s a look at what one of our forecast models is forecasting radar reflectivity for tomorrow afternoon:

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare Day 2 Moderate Risk from Indiana and Ohio down to portions of Northern Mississippi and Northern Alabama. Here is a look at the Storm Prediction Center’s Outlook for tomorrow:

The storm prediction center is forecasting a severe weather event in the moderate risk area with widespread damaging winds and potential for strong and violent tornadoes.

Here’s our outlook for tomorrow which is very similar. The areas we outline as numerous and outbreak likely should be prepared for a very rocky day of weather.

We encourage everyone to have their severe weather plans ready and to purchase a NOAA weather radio! Stay tuned to SWAT & IndianaWeatherOnline for the latest information.


SWAT Gearing Up for the 2012 Chase Season

January 17, 2012

Things are busy here at SWAT as we get ready for the upcoming 2012 Storm Chase and Tornado Season! Preparation continues to take place not only on the business side of things, but preparation also continues on the vehicles as we continue to work diligently to make sure we have all of the necessary equipment installed in all of our chase vehicles to be successful during the upcoming chase season!

This past weekend all of the SWAT guys met to continue finalizing our plans for the upcoming season! Brad is missing from the picture since he is the one who took it🙂

Over the past several weeks we continue to work very hard at getting both the SWERV and SWERV 2 ready for the chase season. SWAT’s Tech Guy, Jake Armstrong, has made all kinds of improvements to both vehicles!

We’ve added multiple amateur radios to the SWERV and a bank of Amateur Radio portables in case we ever need additional communications at the scene of a disaster/tornado damage, etc.

The SWERV has also been outfitted with a monitor and mount that will allow the backseat occupants or tour guests to have constant view of the radar and current weather information.

A new hail guard was constructed to help better protect the front window and side windows of the SWERV.

The SWERV was also rewired to ensure proper electrical safety! The fuse block is actually quite impressive!

Both vehicles will be operating with mobile internet, multiple computers with radar and weather data, iPads, MURS radios, Amateur Radios, GPS technology, Live Streaming Video, Medical and first air equipment and much more!

We are really excited about the upcoming Tornado and Storm Chase Season and even more excited about meeting all of our Tour Guests! If you haven’t booked yet, make sure you book your tour today! For more information, you can visit http://www.SWATTours.com or email Webmaster@SWATChasers.com.

And if you had any doubt whether the tour will be worth it, this is a picture of a rare double tornado that our Lead Meteorologist Brandon Redmond and Tech Guy Jake Armstrong caught back in 2010 outside of St. Anne, Illinois, and we will find plenty more this upcoming season!

Make sure you check out all of our Social Media sites!

http://www.SWATChasers.com
http://www.SWATTours.com
http://www.Facebook.com/SWATChasers
http://www.Twitter.com/SWATChasers
http://www.Youtube.com/SWATChasersf

Thanks for reading,

Brandon Redmond


Powerful Storm Brewing

October 17, 2011

An extremely powerful early Fall weather system is brewing and will begin developing as early as tomorrow. A strong low pressure system induced by a strong polar vortex will merge and morph with a disturbance coming out of the Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance moving North out of the Gulf of Mexico will bring an abundant amount of moisture with it. As the warm and moist tropical air moves North, the warm and moist air (latent heat release) will help strengthen the morphed weather system as it travels North along the Spine of the Appalachian Mountains.

The water vapor imagery essentially tells the story this evening. You can see the large area of disturbed weather across portions of the Gulf of Mexico. The second system that will be a factor in this eventual large and phased weather system is a developing weather system across portions of Colorado. The extremely dry air across portions of Arizona and New Mexico is associated with our third player in this developing storm system and that is a very strong jet stream.

Nearly all of our forecast guidance has locked on to a solution of a strong weather system developing and moving into portions of the Midwest and Eastern Ohio Valley.

As the weather system begins to develop along the East Coast on Tuesday, strong and severe storms will be possible across the Southeastern United States. Increasing shear and an extremely tropical and buoyant atmosphere will lead to the threat of tornadoes from Florida into Georgia and eventually South Carolina.

This strengthening weather system will bomb out across portions of the Eastern Ohio Valley, strengthening possibly to as low or near 980 mb. This type of track is rare, as most storms that develop in this manner have a coastal low that transfers off the Mid Atlantic coast and tracks up the Northeast coast verses strengthening over land.

The track of his system means that a very large area will be impacted with heavy rain occurring from Florida all the way up the Appalachians, through the Ohio Valley and into portions of the Interior Northeast.

As the system reaches it’s peak intensity over the Eastern Ohio Valley and Eastern Great Lake states Wednesday and Thursday, extremely strong winds are also possible. You can see the tight wind field noted by the extremely close isobars around the low pressure.

With extremely impressive height falls as the low pressure deepens, it is not out of the question that some light snow could fall across portions of Northern Illinois, Southern and Eastern Wisconsin, Northern and Northwestern Indiana and Western Michigan. Obviously with extremely warm ground temperatures and fairly warm lower and mid level temperatures, no accumulation would occur, but the fact that some wet snowflakes are possible is definitely impressive.

Stay tuned to our facebook page for the latest on this developing storm system over the next 24-48 hours (www.Facebook.com/SWATChasers).


Was Florida hit by a Tropical Storm or a Non Tropical Gale Force?

October 11, 2011

If you were following SWAT’s updates on Facebook (www.Facebook.com/SWATChasers) Sunday Night, you should be well aware that a large area of disturbed weather struck the East Coast of Florida, packing heavy rain and strong winds in excess of 60-70 mph. During the day on Sunday, a weather feature began to develop over the Bahamas. This feature began to show signs of developing into a closed low pressure system within a larger, more synoptically driven weather system/pattern.  By Sunday Evening, the circulation had tightened on  radar, and velocity data was showing upwards of 70+ mph winds. A semi apparent eyewall like feature also became evident just East of Palm Bay, Florida.

There was much debate in the meteorology community as to whether this area of disturbed weather should have been classified as a Tropical Storm or not. Winds gusted to over hurricane force in several reporting stations along the Eastern Florida Coast, but the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center remained persistent that the disturbed weather was nothing more than a Non Tropical Gale Force.

Radar data/loops clearly showed a well defined center of circulation/eyewall feature as stated above off the Eastern Florida Coast. Without knowing what you were being shown, at first glance, the radar image below looks like several prior landfalling tropical systems.

So besides the well defined center of circulation off the Florida Coast, why do I believe that this area of disturbed weather should have been classified as a tropical storm? There are several reasons, but for starters, here is what I posted Sunday Evening on the SWAT Facebook page.

“I rarely criticize the National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center, but this area of low pressure center has obviously gained tropical storm characteristics. The area of low pressure system has formed over warm sea surface temperatures, has organized convection over the center of circulation, has surface winds over 35 knots and the strongest winds are near the center. This all combined with Cape Canaveral recently reporting a 69 mph wind gusts is blatantly obvious evidence that we have at least a tropical depression if not a tropical storm off the East Florida Coast. Our viewers in Eastern Florida should be prepared for heavy rain, very strong winds and coastal flooding through the morning hours.”

Shortly after I published that update on the SWAT Facebook page, several reports of 75 mph wind gusts were received along the Eastern Florida Coast from the United States Air Force weather observing stations. The winds were strong enough that the National Weather Service was forced to not only issue High Wind Warnings but also Storm Warnings for the adjacent waters. Storm Warnings are extremely rare in the Southeast during Hurricane Season.

In addition to radar data and reports of winds gusting well over 70+ mph at several official reporting stations, the pressure also began to rapidly drop. Cape Canaveral, Florida saw pressures rapidly fall as the area of disturbed weather approached.

The center of circulation passed very close to Cape Canaveral and their pressure bottomed at 999.5 millibars, a pressure reading commonly found in tropical storms. Nearly all (if not all) of the characteristics needed for a storm to be classified as a tropical storm had been met, so why did the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service choose not to classify or upgrade the storm to a “tropical storm”? There is still some doubt in the meteorology community whether the area of disturbed weather attained a warm core. A definition of tropical cyclones is that they must have a warm core, which means the temperature in the vertical core of the cyclone extending up through the atmosphere is higher than in the air surrounding it. With the area of disturbed weather over extremely warm sea surface temperatures, I personally believe that at the very least, a shallow warm core was likely present.

The second possible reason that the National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center did not upgrade the storm to an official “tropical storm” could be based off of the logistical nightmare surrounding a possible late evening upgrade. The following was posted by a National Weather Service Melbourne, Florida Meteorologist on an online forum.

“You probably don’t realize what a logistical nightmare this would cause our office to name this thing at such a late hour. We would have to cancel the Gale Warning, High Surf Advisory, Wind Advisory and Lake Wind Advisory that have been up now for two days and replace them with Subtropical Storm Warning. We would need to put out products cancelling the current advisories, and then issue a Subtropical Storm Local Statement, update the Zone Forecasts, Coastal Waters Forecast Hazardous Weather Outlook, our blog and Short term Forecast. Local graphics would have to be updated as well as our forecast grids.”

While I understand his point, I do not agree with the decision. If the storm truly was a tropical storm, tropical storm warnings grab the attention of the public far better than high wind warnings or storm warnings. This area of “disturbed weather/non tropical gale force” caused significant damage and as seen via multiple social media outlets, the public appeared to have had no real idea that inclement weather was likely. Granted, high wind warnings were in place, but again, tropical storm warnings have much more significance on public perception than a high wind warning does.

Needless to say, I 100% believe the area of disturbed weather off the Florida Coast Sunday Night was a tropical storm. Hopefully the system is revisited/relooked at in post season analysis. This means that the National Hurricane Center can revisit and take a second look at the storm to decide if it was actually a tropical storm and add it to the list of 2011 tropical cyclones/historical data.

 


La Niña Returns!

September 8, 2011

As I stated in my 2011/2012 Winter Forecast, I expected a return to a La Niña type weather pattern by the Fall/early Winter months. The NWS officially announced today that La Niña has returned. A La Niña type weather pattern will likely lead to another active and extreme winter across the Plains, Midwest and Ohio Valley. Here is the official press release from NOAA – Brandon

La Niña, which contributed to extreme weather around the globe during the first half of 2011, has re-emerged in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is forecast to gradually strengthen and continue into winter. Today, forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center upgraded last month’s La Niña Watch to a La Niña Advisory.

NOAA will issue its official winter outlook in mid-October, but La Niña winters often see drier than normal conditions across the southern tier of the United States and wetter than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley.

“This means drought is likely to continue in the drought-stricken states of Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. “La Niña also often brings colder winters to the Pacific Northwest and the northern Plains, and warmer temperatures to the southern states.”

Climate forecasts from NOAA’s National Weather Service give American communities advance notice of what to expect in the coming months so they can prepare for potential impacts. This service is helping the country to become a Weather Ready Nation at a time when extreme weather is on the rise.

Seasonal hurricane forecasters factored the potential return of La Niña into NOAA’s updated 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, issued in August, which called for an active hurricane season. With the development of tropical storm Nate this week, the number of tropical cyclones entered the predicted range of 14-19 named storms.

The strong 2010-11 La Niña contributed to record winter snowfall, spring flooding and drought across the United States, as well as other extreme weather events throughout the world, such as heavy rain in Australia and an extremely dry equatorial eastern Africa.

La Niña is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon located over the tropical Pacific Ocean and results from interactions between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. During La Niña, cooler-than-average Pacific Ocean temperatures influence global weather patterns. La Niña typically occurs every three-to-five years, and back-to-back episodes occur about 50 percent of the time. Current conditions reflect a re-development of the June 2010-May 2011 La Niña episode.

NOAA’s National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. NOAA’s National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Visit us online at weather.gov.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook , Twitter and our other social media channels.


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